Between 1995 and 2007, 72 SERS sites were announced. Between 2008 and 2018, only 10 SERS sites were announced, total 7883 flats. At this rate, 306 years are required to replace all 241343 flats built between 1971 and 1980. It is obvious that SERS is highly selective and only a small amount of these flats will be selected for redevelopment. Can we predict future SERS sites?
News: since September 2017 I added SERS predictions for EVERY block in HDB map so please stop disturbing me with questions “can block X get SERS”. Just click the block icon on map and see the answer!
See also: List of SERS sites in Excel spreadsheet with few extra details.
|Date||Town||Completed SERS Site*||Designated Replacement Site|
|Street Name||Block No.||Street Name||Block No.|
|1||22 Aug 1995||Bukit Merah
|Boon Tiong Road /
Tiong Bahru Road
|2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 13 (Phase 1)
1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15 and 16 (Phase 2)
|Boon Tiong Road
Boon Tiong Road
4A, 8A, 8B
|2||1 Sep 1995||Toa Payoh||Lorong 2 Toa Payoh||145, 147, 151 and 152||Lorong 2 Toa Payoh||141, 153, 153A, 154 to 156|
|3||8 Nov 1995||Bukit Merah||Depot Road||103, 110 and 111 (Phase 1)
105, 107 and 112 (Phase 2)
|103A, 103B, 104A, 104B, 106A and 106B
109A, 109B, 111A, 111B, 112A and 111B
|4||8 Feb 1996||Bukit Merah||Redhill Road||67 and 77 (Phase 1)
71 and 72 (Phase 2)
|68 to 70
63A and 63B
73A, 74A and 77A
|5||30 Apr 1996||Queenstown||Margaret Drive
|6A and 6B
|Stirling Road||181 to 184|
|6||28 May 1996||Bedok||Chai Chee Road||6 and 7||Chai Chee Road||10 and 11|
|7||30 Jun 1996||Ang Mo Kio||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1||309, 315 and 316 (Phase 1)
307 and 308 (Phase 2)
|Ang Mo Kio Street 32
Ang Mo Kio Street 31
|350 to 354
309A, 315A, 315B and 316A
|8||9 Sep 1996||Jurong West
|Corporation Drive / Hu Ching Road||139 to 145||Yung Sheng Road||177 to 180 and 184|
|9||5 Dec 1996||Queenstown
|Holland Drive||18 and 19||Strathmore Avenue||55 and 56|
|10||17 Feb 1997||Toa Payoh||Toa Payoh Central||79||Lor 2 Toa Payoh||142 to 144|
|11||Toa Payoh||Toa Payoh Lorong 2||89||Lor 2 Toa Payoh||142 to 144|
|12||Ang Mo Kio||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 10||454 and 455||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 6||700A, 700B and 700C|
|13||Bukit Merah – Tiong Bahru||Kim Tian Road||126 and 127||Kim Tian Road||119B, 119C and 119D|
|14||Bukit Merah||Nile Road||51, 53 and 54||Kim Tian Road||131B and 131C|
|15||25 Apr 1997||Ang Mo Kio||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3||580 to 582||Ang Mo Kio Street 52||596A, 596B, 596C and 596D|
|Dover Crescent||24 and 28||Dover Crescent||17 to 19|
|Syed Alwi Road||3 to 5||Jellicoe Road||813, 815 and 816|
|18||17 Oct 1997||Jurong West
|Tah Ching Road||135 to 138||Yung Sheng Road||181 to 183|
|19||Clementi||Clementi Avenue 3||439 and 440||Clementi Avenue 3||454 to 456, 458 and 460|
|20||Bukit Merah||Alexandra Road / Tiong Bahru Road||136A, 137A, 136 to
140, 142 and 145
Kim Tian Place
|19 to 23
121 and 121A
|21||13 Feb 1998||Bukit Merah
|Telok Blangah Drive||78, 80 and 81||Telok Blangah Heights||86 and 88|
|Teban Gardens Road||12 to 14, 17 and 19 (Phase 1)
21 to 23 (Phase 2)
|Teban Gardens Road||60 and 62 to 65|
|23||21 Jul 1998||Central||Short Street / Prinsep Street||1 to 7||Farrer Park Road||11 to 13 and 15|
|24||Central||Short Street||11 to 13||Farrer Park Road||11 to 13 and 15|
|25||Central||Outram Park||21 to 23 and 27 to 29||Cantonment Close||8, 9, 11, 13 and 16 to 19|
|26||7 Oct 1998||Toa Payoh
|Upper Aljunied Lane||1||Pine Close||1|
|Jalan Membina Barat / Lower Delta Road||24, 31 and 32||Jln Membina||118A, 118B, 118C and 118D|
|Lower Delta Road||102 and 103||Jln Membina||118A, 118B, 118C and 118D|
|29||Lim Chu Kang||Lim Chu Kang Road||3, 4 and 5||Boon Lay Drive||268A, 268B and 268C|
|30||18 Mar 1999||Kallang
|Tronoh Road||7 and 8||McNair Road||108B and 108C|
|31||21 Mar 1999||Bukit Batok
|Hillview Avenue||1 to 8, 10 and 12 to 14||Bukit Batok West Avenue 5||383 to 386, 387 to 390 and 391 to 395|
|32||29 Oct 1999||Toa Payoh||Toa Payoh Lorong 1A||136, 137 and 140||Lorong 2 Toa Payoh||145 to 147 and 152|
|33||Toa Payoh||Toa Payoh Lorong 1||164 to 167||Lorong 2 Toa Payoh||145 to 147 and 152|
|34||Geylang||Dakota Crescent||68, 70 and 72||Jalan Tiga||39, 43, 45, 47 and 49|
|35||20 Feb 2000||Sengkang||Punggol Road /
Buangkok South Farmway 1
|1, 2, 5, 206 and 207||Compassvale Lane||207A, 207B, 207C and 207D|
|36||Bedok||Bedok North Road||83||Bedok North Road||180 to 183 and 185|
|37||Sembawang||Sembawang Road||1 to 5||Wellington Circle||508A, 508B, 508C, 509A, 509B, 510A and 510B|
|38||30 Jul 2000||Bukit Merah
|Telok Blangah Heights||70 and 71||Telok Blangah Heights||85 and 87|
|39||Central||Outram Hill||14 to 16||Cantonment Close||12|
|40||12 Aug 2000||Clementi||Clementi Ave 4||311 to 314||Clementi Avenue 3||457, 459, 461 and 462|
|41||17 Feb 2001||Queenstown||Margaret Drive||96||Strathmore Avenue||48 to 52|
|42||Queenstown||Stirling Road||172 to 175|
|43||3 Mar 2001||Seletar||Seletar Road||1 to 4||Fernvale Lane||403A, 403B, 403C, 403D, 404A,
404B, 405A, 405B and 405C
|44||Seletar||Seletar West Farmway 6||1, 2, 5, 6 and 7|
|45||11 Mar 2001||Kallang
|Upper Boon Keng Road||6, 8, 9 and 10||Upper Boon Keng Road||2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 3A, 3B, 3C and 3D|
|46||13 Jan 2003||Queenstown||Tanglin Halt||50 to 54||Tanglin Halt Road||89 to 91|
|47||Queenstown||Commonwealth Drive||57, 61 and 67 to 73|
|48||15 Jan 2003||Toa Payoh||Lorong 5/6 Toa Payoh||28, 30, 32 and 33||Toa Payoh Central||79A, 79B, 79C, 79D and 79E|
|49||20 Feb 2003||Geylang||Jalan Pasar Baru / Geylang Serai||1 to 3||Eunos Crescent||31 to 36|
|50||24 Feb 2003||Bukit Merah – Havelock||Havelock Road / Taman Ho Swee||29, 31 and 33||Jalan Membina||25A, 25B, 26A, 26B, 26C, 26D, 27A and 27B|
|51||16 Jul 2004||Bedok||Bedok South Avenue 3||46 to 50||Bedok Central||219A, 219B, 219C, 219D, 220A, 220B,
220C, 221A, 221B and 221C
|52||19 Jul 2004||Queenstown
|Dover Road||30 to 32 and 34 to 39||Dover Crescent||28A, 28B, 28C and 28D|
|53||28 Jul 2004||Jurong West
|Tao Ching Road||103 and 105||Tah Ching Road||337A, 337B, 337C, 337D and 338A|
|54||28 Mar 2005||Clementi||Clementi Avenue 3||436 to 438||Clementi Avenue 3||441A and 441B|
|55||Clementi||Clementi Avenue 3||445|
|56||21 Apr 2005||Queenstown
|Holland Avenue / Drive||14 to 17, 22 and 23||Holland Drive||18A, 18B, 18C and 18D|
|57||25 Nov 2005||Kallang
|Upper Boon Keng Road||20||Bendemeer Road#||38A, 38B, 38C, 38D and 39A|
|58||Geylang||Sims Drive||54, 56, 57, 59, 60 and 62||Upper Boon Keng Road#||5A, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 3A, 3B, 3C and 3D|
|59||29 Dec 2005||Queenstown||Margaret Drive||6C||Strathmore Avenue||61A, 61B, 61C, 62A and 62B|
|62||22 Mar 2006||Jurong West
(Boon Lay Gardens)
|Yung Ping Road / Yung Kuang Road||5 to 10||Kang Ching Road||338B, 339A, 339B, 339C and 339D|
(Boon Lay Gardens)
|Boon Lay Drive||180,181,182 and 184||Jurong West St 64@||675A, 675B, 676A, 676B, 677A,
2677B, 677C, 678A, 678B, 678C and 678D
|Boon Lay Avenue||216,217,219 and 220||Jurong West St 93@||986A, 986B, 986C, 987A, 987B,
988A, 988B, 988C, 989A, 989B,
989C, 989D, 990A, 990B and 990C
|65||21 Apr 2006||Bukit Merah||Zion Road||88 to 92||Havelock Road||52 to 58|
|66||22 Jun 2006||Ang Mo Kio||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/3/4||246 to 252||Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1||307A, 307B, 307C, 308A, 308B, 310A, 310B and 310C|
|67||8 Dec 2006||Queenstown
|Ghim Moh Road||9 to 12, 9A and 12A||Ghim Moh Link||22, 23 and 26 to 28|
|68||23 Feb 2007||Bukit Merah||Henderson Road||94 and 96||Kim Tian Road||126A, 126C, 127A, 127C and 127D|
|Silat Walk / Kampong
Bahru Hill / Silat Road
|17 to 19 and 22 to 31|
|70||28 Jun 2007||Clementi||Clementi Avenue 1||401 to 404, 407 to 409||Clementi Avenue 1||416 to 418, 420, 421, 423 to 425|
|71||12 Jul 2007||Jurong East
|Teban Gardens Road||2 to 11||Teban Gardens Road||20 to 23|
|72||8 Aug 2008||Queenstown||Commonwealth Drive||74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80||Commonwealth Drive||Blocks 50 to 54
|73||8 Nov 2009||Bukit Merah||Bukit Merah View||110, 111, 113, 114||Boon Tiong Road||Blocks 9A, 9B, 10A and 10B
(Tiong Bahru View)
|74||13 Feb 2011||Clementi||Clementi Avenue 5||321 to 323||Clementi Avenue 3||Blocks 440A to 440C
|75||9 Nov 2011||Bedok
|East Coast Road||1 to 3||Chai Chee Road||Blocks 807B and 807C
(Ping Yi Greens)
|–||15 Nov 2011||Central||Rochor Road||1, 2, 3, 4||Upper Boon Keng Rd||8A, 8B, 8C
|76||3 Dec 2011||Bukit Merah||Redhill Close||1 to 3, 5 to 22||Henderson Road||Blocks 95A to 95C, 96A and 96B
(City Vue @Henderson)
|77||29 Dec 2011||Jurong West
(Boon Lay Gardens)
|Boon Lay Drive||167 to 172||Jurong West Central||697A to 6097C, 698A to 698C
(Jurong West Blossom)
|78||25 Jun 2012||Woodlands||Woodlands Centre Road||1A and 2A||Woodlands Drive 70||Blocks 717A and 717B
|79||27 Jun 2014||Queenstown||Tanglin Halt Road / Commonwealth Drive||24 to 32, 33 to 38,
40 to 45, 55, 56,
58 to 60 and 62 to 66
|Margaret Drive (Site A)
Margaret Drive (Site B)
Dawson Road (Ste C)
Dawson Road (Site D)
Strathmore Avenue (Site E)
|80||3 Aug 2016||Clementi||West Coast Road||513 to 520||Site A: Clementi Avenue 1
Site B: West Coast Link
|81||31 May 2018||Geylang||MacPherson Lane||81 to 83||Circuit Road|
* A completed site is one where all residents have vacated their sold flats.
# The replacement flats at Bendemeer Road and Upper Boon Keng Road were offered to the flats owners of Sims Drive (S/Nos. 57 and 58).
@ The replacement flats at Jurong West St 64 and Jurong West St 93 were offered to the flats owners of Boon Lay Drive (S/Nos. 63 and 64).
During 1990s, the old estates built in 1960s and 1970s suffered from dilapidated buildings, aging population and businesses moving out. On resale market Queenstown and Ang Mo Kio were cheaper than Pasir Ris, one of the cheapest towns today (source: Resale flat prices database). To counter this, HDB launched Main Upgrading Programme in 1990, Interim Upgrading Programme in 1993 and Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme in 1995.
Some of the owner-occupied blocks built up to 1980 are selected for SERS residents are rehoused in new blocks built in nearby location, to maintain community. Usually low-rise blocks with large spaces between them are selected for SERS while dense and tall blocks are selected for upgrading.
HDB do not give you a replacement flat automatically, instead they compensate you with the market value of your flat, then you need to buy yourself another flat, which can be bigger or smaller, and you can get profit or need to pay with CPF the difference to the price of new flat. I would like to know how people dealt in early SERS sites, where affected blocks had 3-room flats only and replacement blocks 4-room and 5-room flats sold at much higher price. Since 2004 the residents can enjoy SERS benefits anywhere instead of being limited to the designated replacement blocks.
Although small-scale redevelopment of old estates started in 1966, with demolition of single-storey artisans quarters, the mass demolition of rental blocks started in late 1980s.
Some owner-occupied blocks may have been also demolished before implementation of SERS. With no dedicated replacement blocks, residents were compensated at market value and moved anywhere they wanted. For example Dawson estate had over 100 blocks but only 3 of them (blk 6A, 6B, 39) appears in the list of SERS sites. Do not say that all others were rental. At least terraced houses were owned.
The 1997 Asian Crisis affected demand for flats, resale flat prices in young towns continued to drop by 2006, while in mature towns prices started to rise in 2002 fueled by upgrading programmes and SERS.
Between 1995 and 2007, 72 SERS sites were announced. This created widespread rumous among population that any 1960s and 1970s block can get SERS, increasing demand for old flats, people buying 1960s and 1970s flats on purpose to have their block demolished and receive a new flat at subsidized price. As seen in above chart, blocks leased in 1966-1980 are priced higher than blocks leased in 1981-2000. Due to this reason, is no longer viable for HDB to redevelop old blocks, number of new SERS sites announced dropped dramatically.
Between 2008 and 2018, only 10 SERS sites were announced, total 7883 flats. At this rate, 306 years are required to replace all 241343 flats built between 1971 and 1980. It is obvious that SERS is highly selective and only a small amount of these flats will be selected for redevelopment in the near future, making impossible to predict which blocks will be next SERS site.
I believed that HDB is waiting for the old flats to get closer to their end of lease when their market value will drop significantly, then increase number of SERS sites.
On 19 August 2018 HDB announced that only 5% of total sold flats are eligible for SERS, of which 4% have been selected already. For all other flats there will be VERS (Voluntary En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme) that will start in approximately 20 years from now (near 2036 when first leases reach 70 years old). Polls will be made in each precint and they require 75% of owners to vote to go VERS or keep living in their flats until leases run out.
Due to rapid and short development of towns like Ang Mo Kio (1976-1982), Bedok (1974-1986), Marine Parade (1975-1978), HDB cannot VERS all blocks once they are 70 years old, so they will be redeveloped stages when they are between 70 and 90 years old. Details such as selection criteria, compensation offered, etc, and how VERS will be financed, are not yet decided, leading to speculation. Think that in 20 years many things can change!
Depot Road Estate built in early 1970s was fully redeveloped starting from 2000 except the 25-storey 5-room point blocks. HDB Press Release says this: Blocks 113 and 114 have not been included for SERS. These two point blocks are 25-storeys high with a total of 192 units of 5-room sold flats. Given their existing height, it is more viable to upgrade these blocks than to redevelop them. Hence they have been scheduled for the Main Upgrading Programme by the year 2000, in tandem with the redevelopment works in Phase II.
Hillview Estate built in 1977-1978 was the biggest SERS site and most controversial. Originally only the low-rise blocks were scheduled for demolition, but would left three 25-storey blocks in middle of nowhere so they decided to demolish entire estate, being the first 5-room point blocks blocks to be demolished, in 2006 (note: they were NOT the first demolished 25-storey blocks. In 2003 they demolished three 25-storey blocks of 4-room (possibly rental) at King George’s Avenue, other 25-storey blocks demolished are blk 110, 111, 112 Bukit Merah View and blk 22, 23 Holland Drive).
I heard 3 different stories about reason of demolition. Political stories: opposition ward at elections, so HDB decided to mix the residents in Bukit Batok. Paranormal stories: estate was haunted by ghosts and Pontianak. Army stories: nearby camp had to be upgraded to high security camp and the 25-storey blocks allowed espionage (however the army camp can be viewed also from Bukit Panjang 30-storey blocks).
How to identify future potential SERS sites
– SERS is currently done only where height restrictions allow redevelopment into 30+ storey blocks. Geylang, Hougang, Tampines, etc, are limited to 20 floors or less, so cannot get SERS until Paya Lebar airbase will be closed in 2030.
– So far only blocks built up to 1980 are selected for SERS, but this rule may change soon.
– Look in HDB Map for lease year, but it is when tenants were allowed to buy flats and does not always mean built year. For example Redhill Close blocks were built in 1955 and leased on 1 May 1983.
– Look in Google Earth / Maps satellite photos for blocks with large spaces between them.
– Look in URA Master Plan for areas with plot ratio 3.0, 3.5 or higher, but 2.8 areas may be also included.
– Look in Enquire status of upgrading programmes to check if the block did not have recent upgrading programmes. If HDB invested in any upgrading programme, the block will stand at least 20 more years. Clementi blocks 513-520 (IUP 1998, LUP 2008) may have been an one-off case.
There is NO rule to demolish blocks of given age. According Press Release of 22 August 1995 “Only a small number of estates/areas are likely to be considered for redevelopment under SERS. They will be the exception rather than the rule. These are old HDB estates developed at low density, or selected blocks which can be redeveloped with adjacent vacant land to give a better yield of flats”
Depot Road blk 103, 110, 111 built in 1975 and Ang Mo Kio blk 309, 315, 316 built in 1977 were identified for SERS in 1995 and 1996 and demolished around 2000 (after 25 years). Punggol Road 206 and 207 are one-off case with blocks built 1986 (source) and demolished around 2006 (4-storey farmer blocks that were damaging the modern image of Sengkang New Town). As 2016, NO block built after 1980 was identified for SERS.
Height limit matter: blocks 210-224 built in phase II of Toa Payoh, 1975-1978, having large space between blocks were likely to get SERS and be redeveloped in 40-50 storey blocks, while MacPherson estate built in 1960-1965, despite of being older, was selected for MUP instead of SERS because the blocks were packed close apart, and the proximity of Paya Lebar airbase height limit of 18 floors, do not allow redevelopment in higher density. The only blocks demolished in MacPherson were 1/2-room rental blocks, demolished during 1980s.
In 2010 I identified few potential SERS sites with NO upgrading programmes, but most of them were meantime selected for LUP (except Toa Payoh blocks 210-224, Tiong Bahru post-war blocks) while only Bukit Merah View, Clementi Avenue 5 were selected for SERS, proving how HARD is to predict correctly.
In 2011 Redhill and Boon Lay sites had the first upgraded blocks to be identified for SERS, both not technically feasible for Lift Upgrading Programme). LUP began in 2001 and is scheduled to end in 2014. However, some blocks received lifts stopping at every floor during MUP in 1990s, so they do not need also LUP, making predictions HARDER. But, any block that still do not have lifts that stop at every floor is very likely to get SERS. Anyone who spot such blocks is invited to leave a comment!
Surprisingly, the Toa Payoh blocks 210-224 were selected for LUP in 2011, NRP in 2013 and HIP in 2012 and 2014. Why these blocks were apparently reserved for SERS then suddenly HDB done 3 upgrading programmes in 3 years, is a big mystery. Does anyone know what was PAP support ratio in this precint?
Potential SERS sites spotted by me + non-SERS sites that people asked about
Future SERS sites is a HDB top secret information, only few employees knowing about this, to prevent price speculation, if there are rumors that a block will get SERS, people will value their flats higher and HDB will need to pay higher compensations.
- Nobody can answer WHEN a block will get SERS. Don’t ask such questions!
- You cannot be sure that a block will be demolished except when the SERS site is announced. Instead, we can be sure which blocks will be NOT a be SERS site next 10-20 years.
- HDB e-service enquire status of upgrading programmes may have errors. In 2010 I checked all pre-1980 blocks one by one and compiled the HDB Database in Excel for purpose of seeing all blocks at once, database which I updated in 2015 checking all blocks including those checked in 2010. Marsiling Drive blk 27-29 and 33-34 showed in 2010 that got MUP in 1997 and LUP in 2004, but now as 2015 the e-service do not show the LUP but only the MUP. Google StreetView confirm the LUP done in 2004. I assume that similar errors exist. I do not have time to counter-check all blocks.
- You are advised to check yourself Google Streetview and eventually go personally at the block and talk with residents to check possible unlisted upgrading programmes.
I listed below over 20 potential SERS sites with no upgrading programmes after 2000. If HDB continue to announce 1 SERS site every 2 years, and they may announce other sites not listed here, each of the below have less than 20% chances to get SERS next 5 years.
York Hill Estate, there are 8 rental blocks and 3 ownership blocks (8, 9, 10) which got MUP in 1994 but nothing else. But first HDB need to build enough rental replacement blocks. Someone should check how many units are empty, when majority of rental blocks gets empty, SERS may come for the owned blocks!
Jalan Batu blocks 1-14 underwent MUP in 1996 but nothing else, they sit on prime land, may get SERS soon.
Ang Mo Kio
Last SERS site: 2006, so we expect a new SERS site soon.
Blocks 207-208, 215-216 underwent MUP in 1998 including lifts that stop at every floor, but were excluded from subsequent upgrades affecting neighbor blocks, together with block 217 1-room rental and nearby carpark, can free a large piece of land.
Blocks 303-306, 319-321 also underwent MUP in 1998 and nothing else, there is a rental block nearby (318).
No other SERS sites are expected in Ang Mo Kio, all blocks got LUP or MUP in late 1990s or later.
Chai Chee blk 30-40 (built early 1970s) underwent MUP in 1993 but no LUP so may be a SERS site, maybe during 2020s. blk 33-34 got LUP in 2012 making entire estate less likely to get SERS.
Bedok blk 22-30 got MUP in 1996 then nothing else.
No more SERS sites are expected in Bedok, all blocks got LUP or MUP in late 1990s or later.
Sin Ming blocks 22, 23 24 got MUP in 1995 and only block 25 got LUP in 2009, this is a sign that other 3 blocks are reserved for a future SERS site (thanks to Low Joo Ling comment).
Starting from 2014 I have been asking by multiple people if various blocks in Bukit Batok will get SERS (example: Justin comment). Even if Bukit Batok have potential of redevelopment into 30-storey blocks, there is NO sign that SERS programme will be extended to 1980s towns in the near future, also all blocks in Bukit Batok got LUP, so I am 100% sure that will be NO SERS in Bukit Batok until at least 2030. I think that residents are spreading false rumors!
Tiong Bahru pre-war blocks (built 1936-1940) are under conservation and being the place of pilot home ownership scheme in 1964, they are transacted as private properties. They will NOT get SERS.
Tiong Bahru post-war blocks (built 1948-1954) are not feasible for LUP due to staircase position. This is a potential SERS site but many people (including me) hope that they will be put under conservation, like the nearby pre-war blocks.
Bukit Ho Swee estate received MUP in phases in 1992, 1994, 1996, then the blocks from first 2 phases received LUP in 2006 (probably the 3rd MUP phase in 1996 upgraded lifts too so LUP was no longer necessary), although it does have potential of redevelopment to 40+ storey, the LUP makes SERS unlikely sooner than 2026.
Farrer Road blocks 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 got MUP in 1994 and HDB Enquire Status of upgrading programmes says clearly that no LUP was announced. A potential SERS site! However, blocks 1 and 5 got LUP in 2011-2012, the chances to have SERS only remaining blocks are low. Probably all blocks will get SERS in distant future.
No more SERS sites are expected in Clementi, all blocks got LUP or MUP in late 1990s or later.
Unbelievable! Blocks 513-520 that got LUP in 2008 were announced for SERS in 2016, at just 5 years since last SERS site in 2011
MacPherson estate, although built in same time with Tanglin Halt, did not got any SERS to date, because of the proximity of Paya Lebar airbase which limit height to 18 floors. However, the 2013 announcement that Paya Lebar airbase will be closed, and the lack of other upgrading programmes after MUP done in 1993-1994 which included lift stopping on every floor, indicate that SERS will come in distant future.
There are 5574 dwelling units in the blocks 21-83 built in 1960s (excluding add-on blocks built 1990s), probably will be redeveloped in 2-3 phases, starting from late 2020s.
Taman Jurong blk 116-122 underwent MUP in 1998 but nothing else, may get SERS during 2020s.
Boon Lay blk 207-215 underwent MUP in 1997 but nothing else, they have very big spaces between blocks thus suitable for SERS, but where the replacement blocks can be built? HDB filled all available land in Jurong West with BTOs.
Pandan Gardens blk 410-412 did not got LUP in 2009 when neighbor blocks got. They got only IUP in 1994 and as far I know IUP do not upgrade lifts like MUP, so they are likely a SERS site, but how soon?
Old Airport Road Estate blk 2-32 were built in 1950s, however these blocks never appeared in HDB resale transactions listings, someone told me in 2013 that all them are rental blocks and many flats are vacant, and in 2014 all news websites announced that will be cleared in 2016 and 15 of 17 SIT blocks will be demolished for an “immediate redevelopment”.
Old Airport Road blk 93, 95, 97, 99 built by HDB in 1960s are ownership flats, got MUP in 1992 and nothing else. I believe that they may get SERS around 2017 when the rental blocks will be cleared, the replacement blocks for these 4 blocks may be built here. People informed me that carpark is being upgraded with lift, this lower SERS potential, unless they demolish blocks and keep carpark.
Marine Parade is the most expensive 1960s/1970s estate, and due to this reason, SERS is not viable. I believe that HDB is waiting for the leases to be 50-60-70 years old when flat values will be lower, then do SERS. This is likely to not happen before closure of Paya Lebar airbase in 2030s, when height restriction of ~25 floors will be removed. Where can be the replacement site?
Commonwealth View and Tanglin Halt, built in early 1960s, underwent MUP in batches between 1992 and 2000, they sit on prime land with potential of 50-storey blocks so may be a good idea to do SERS in late 2010s or 2020s. But due to large number of blocks, doing SERS would take at least 2 decades and is difficult to predict which will be the first to be demolished. Blocks 74-80 were identified for SERS in 2008.
After 6 years, in 2014, the big SURPRISE happened! All remaining Tanglin Halt was identified for SERS (3538 flats).
We expect Commonwealth (3384 flats) to have same fate in 6 or more years, the replacement site may be in Tanglin Halt which will be demolished around 2021.
Mei Ling / Stirling Road blocks 151-164 got MUP in 1996-1998, blocks 167-170 underwent MUP in 1993, both nothing else after, while nearby blocks 165, 166, 168A, 171 that got MUP in 1993 too got also LUP in 2009. This may indicate that the blocks 167-170 are reserved for demolition, or they did not had lifts upgraded during MUP due to costs.
Ghim Moh and Dover all remaining blocks got MUP in 1997, 1999, 2000 and nothing else after, since Ghim Moh blocks 9-12 got SERS in 2006 and demolished in 2014-2015, we expect a new SERS site soon!
Last SERS site in Toa Payoh was 2003, so we expect a new SERS site soon.
Blocks 1-3 got MUP in 1990 then nothing else, they do not have lifts stopping at every floor, may be a SERS site soon!
Blocks 4-15 got MUP in 1994 then nothing else, don’t know if lifts stop at every floor, may be included in same SERS site.
Blocks 34, 38, 47, 51-53, 56-61, 107-128, 158-163, 168-174 … got MUP in 1993-1995 and nothing else, are also candidates for SERS but not in near future, may take 10-20 years to replace all them, nobody can tell which ones will be first.
Blocks 91-100 also got MUP in 1995 and 3 of them (91, 94, 95) got also LUP in 2006, I would not have counted them in SERS until September 2017 someone informed me that the remaining blocks do not have lifts stopping at every floor. Not being selected for LUP despite of being eligible, may indicate a future SERS site (together with rental blocks 103-106)?
One of the biggest dilemmas is the SERS potential of SIT terraced houses in Stirling Road and Jalan Bahagia. Lots of terraced houses were demolished during 1990s but the fact that after 2000 no more were demolished may indicate that HDB is willing to preserve these two clusters of terraced houses, how long… nobody knows. The floor area of these houses vary from original 84 sqm to over 200 sqm, if they will get SERS, HDB need to compensate owners with record sums of money, which will give owners too much profit compared with the price of a new HDB flat, which will be much smaller. Probably HDB is waiting until near end of lease when their market value will be lower. I wish to know what was the process of demolition of terraced houses in Dawson estate in late 1990s, since they are NOT included in official list of SERS sites but they were owned thus owners had to be compensated some way.
Government announced in 2013 that Paya Lebar Airbase will be closed, and according a Wikipedia editor that its edits are being reverted in SERS article, this will happens in 2026, but officially there is NO announcement about closure date. This will eliminate height restriction and make potential SERS sites the MacPherson 1960s estate as well as large areas in Geylang and Hougang. I am questioning if the 280 meter nationwide height limit will be removed too.
- Page created in January 2012, showing all completed and in progress SERS sites. For in progress SERS sites (2008-present) I had info about Replacement Sites and Deadline for Submission of Resale / Transfer Applications, taken from HDB website. For completed SERS sites, HDB do not provide an official list of replacement blocks, so I have to look on map and guess which blocks could be the replacement for SERS sites. I found that is possible to see older press releases on archive.org and get the info about replacement blocks, but I constantly get messages that the server is down or page not found…
- June 2012: added info about replacement blocks for 2005-2007 SERS sites from archive.org, as well as the number of units for all 2005-present SERS sites.
- October 2012: added info for 1995/1997 sites from archive.org. I can add built year too. I should expand the table (number of columns)? Suggestions are welcome!
- July 2014: I found that HDB added on its official website the complete list of replacement blocks (this happened since early 2014, but I was not aware of). I remade the table, deleted from website the additional info such as number of units and Deadline. If you are interested in this info you can view it in the XLS version of above table.