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Dec 22

HDB price trends

HDB resale flat prices have been stabilized in 2015, dropping first 3 quarters and rising in the 4th quarter with only 0.2%. Let’s hope that prices won’t rise again too much. I predict 2-4% rise over 2016 year.

However, prices are rising in some towns while dropping in other towns. I compiled this: HDB Median Resale Prices by Town .XLS showing HDB price trends since 2007. Updated 25 Mar 2016 (every 3 months). The gaps in lines in Excel chart are because HDB do not provide median price if less than 20 flats were transacted per quarter.

HDB resale flat prices 1990-2015

As you can see in the chart, Singapore HDB flat prices DOUBLED in 2008-2013 due of insufficient supply of new flats.

Would you like prices dropping next 5 years to the early 2000s value? Think about owners who worked hard to pay current flats which will lose half of value! Would you like prices growing so you and everyone else can make profit selling? Think about your kids, how hard they will need to work to buy their first home!

Demand for apartments in Singapore was high, until 1997 Asian Crisis, which came when 80.000 flats were under construction, resulting in about 40000 unsold completed flats in the year 2000. 2003 SARS outbreak affected economy too, so 5 years were necessary to clear the stock of unsold flats. Queue selling system (Registration for Flat) was suspended in 2002, Build-To-Order was introduced to prevent oversupply, and Walk-In-Selection was used temporarily to clear the stock of unsold flats. Resale prices were constant because new flats were available immediately.

As the stock of unsold flats vanished, Walk-In Selection ended in 2007 and was replaced by Sale of Balance Flats that is only twice per year thus the battle is 6 people per each flat. Residents who cannot wait 3-4 years construction time for BTO and fail at SBF, need to go in resale market. Resale prices started rising.

Economy recovered in late 2000s but HDB failed to anticipate, ramped up the BTO supply too late and too slow, they offered 5500 BTO flats in 2007, 7800 in 2008, 9000 in 2009 (global recession), 12000? 16000 in 2010, 22000 25000 in 2011, 25000 27000 in 2012, plus DBSS flats and Executive Condos. (strikethrough numbers are initial numbers announced at beginning of year).

Rising supply of BTO became visible in 2012, a small reduction in resale prices growing rate.
HDB lowered minimum application rate for BTO to be built from 70% to 50% in 2011, but since mid-2000s to 2013 no BTO had application rate under 100% (except elderly Studio BTO flats).

Analysts predicted that the prices in Singapore will start dropping in 2012 (example), as they predicted in 2011, 2010 too. In my forecast, resale flat prices will NOT fall even in 2012, but will continue to grow for as many years as HDB refuse to build ahead of demand, forcing us to wait 4 years via BTO!

The cooling measures from 2011 such as Minimum Occupation Period lengthen to 5 years for resale flats (does anyone know when 5-year MOP was introduced for new flats?) just made people angry as they can sell their flats only after 9 years since the date they apply for BTO. Stupid MOP cause less flats to enter resale market in the coming years, the number of people not eligible for buying directly from HDB (for example PR and singles) is growing.

Most of BTOs launched in the 3 years 2009, 2010, 2011 will be completed in only 2 years 2013-2014… ~ 30000 flats to be completed in 2014 alone + 5 years MOP = this may lead to a market crash in 2019. I am not saying that prices will not start to fall earlier, but 2009 may have the biggest price fall (if other variables would not exist).

Note: The above text was written by my personal research at end of 2011. Later I found a similar research on h88.com.sg: Colin Tan: HDB resale flat prices will stay up, dating from Feb 2012, that confirm my hypothesis  They say that prices will drop no sooner than 2017! Oh dear…

Prices dropping since 2013

Multiple cooling measures, such as 3 year waiting period for permanent residents to buy resale flats, created fear that the housing market may crash. I don’t think that PR have big impact on prices… unbelievable, for the first time in 5 years, prices dropped in 3rd quarter 2013. Such minor drop in prices may cause panic, many owners rush to sell their flats before prices fall more, leading to a chain reaction in price drop, OR if the panic may be just temporarily and prices will rise back next year. However, there are no signs to recover. Every quarter of 2014 added 1-2% drop in prices. No significant drop but still enough to make analysts ANGRY that HDB cooling measures were too powerful and requested to be lifted.

Note that HDB can also invent anti-cooling measures in case prices drop with more than 10% in one year, and these anti-cooling measures can fail like how most of the cooling measures failed. HDB wants to stabilize prices, a too sudden drop can be disastrous for entire Singapore economy.

Surprisingly, in the 4th quarter of 2015 resale prices started rising again. How was this possible? Let’s hope that prices won’t rise again too much!

Stupidity: instead of providing an adequate supply of flats, they kept supply low during 2000s despite of population increase, low number of flats entered in resale market while the demand was rising, then during 2010s HDB artificially slowed down demand for resale flats with cooling measures, and when prices started to drop, instead of keeping supply high and lift the cooling measures, they announced to decrease supply of new BTO flats 24300 units in 2014 to 16900 units in 2015. Idiot decision! BTO launches do not affect resale prices directly so we expect to see prices dropping and further decrease of BTO supply in 2016, thus the 2008-2013 price bubble risk to happen again during 2020s!

Personalty I hope that HDB will let the price index to drop slowly to 150 (2009 level), THEN lift the cooling measures, but keep the supply of at least 25000 BTO flats per year.

New BTO flat prices won’t fall according resale price index, they were traditionally priced 20% cheaper than resale flat prices, but since 2011 they were “de-linked” and priced 30% cheaper (even if we exclude grants for first timers) as the HDB anticipated price fall. even if the prices fall 10% for 3 consecutive years, BTO flat owners will still have profit from selling their flats. This does not apply for DBSS flats which were overpriced at their launch in 2011-2012. Raised income ceiling from $10k to $12k in 2015 may allow HDB to push up BTO prices. Prices of BTO flats 2008-2015 are available on data.gov.sg.

Survey

If you could decide HDB flat prices to fall or rise, what you would do?

10-20% price rise per year to ensure that every flat owner can make profit when will sell the flat. Forget our children and other young couples
max 5% price rise per year
Maintain prices as constant is possible
max 5% prices fall per year
10-20% price fall per year to quickly make the flats affordable for our children. Forget the current owners which will lose money, but public housing is not meant for investment and profit
Other
Please Specify:

Poll Maker


Poll started February 2016. See also results of previous poll (379 votes between April 2014 and February 2015).

What you should know

– Upgrading programmes and upcoming MRT lines also drive up the nationwide resale price index.
– The size of today flats may encourage people to go in resale market for flats built before 1998 (NOT SURE if this push up the resale prices, record of psf is now hold by resale flats built in 2000s).
– Prices fall faster in young towns than mature towns, Punggol suffered biggest price fall in late 2013, as results of over-speculation during last years, this after it was the cheapest town in mid-2000s.
– In mature towns prices fall faster in the old 10-storey blocks of Queenstown and Toa Payoh that are getting shadowed by the new 40-storey blocks.

Affordability of HDB flats

Yes they are still affordable!
Proof: every launch, the higher priced BTOs (better locations) gets most applicants.
HDB Website shows application rate. See how 3-room remained unsold and how big is the battle for 5-room despite of higher prices. See the TRUTH about shrinking HDB flat sizes!

43 comments

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  1. Candy

    Will 2017 hbd resale flat fall again?

  2. Hazel

    Thank u for your intensive research. I am a singaporean citizen in a serious relationship with an Indian citizen on s pass here and I largely rely on ur findings to pin hopes on our very limited options for a shelter and home over our heads

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